Stevenage 0–1 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Stevenage

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cheltenham

G. Lloyd 43'

4/20/2021

League Two · Round 43The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage43%

×Draw27%

Cheltenham29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.05

Stevenage

1.34

Cheltenham

1.05

Stevenage creates 28% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

1.31

creates per match

1.06

1.04

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

71%

Stevenage or Cheltenham

73%

Draw or Cheltenham

57%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

20%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

74%

Stevenage 2+ goals

39%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

65%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

28%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

60%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stevenage scores more

43%

level

27%

Cheltenham scores more

29%

Stevenage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

B. Tozer

Cheltenham · D

7.5

Match Events

43'

G. Lloyd↳ C. Thomas

46'

J. Aitchison← J. Martin

83'

E. Osborne← J. Smith

90+6'

A. Williams← G. Lloyd

90+1'

A. May← S. Smith

90+6'

E. Chapman← F. Azaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCheltenham

Overview

60%Possession40%

6Total Shots7

4Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots7

1On Target4

2Off Target2

3Blocked1

3Inside Box4

3Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

507Total Passes336

371Accurate Passes212

73%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Offsides0