Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cheltenham vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Cheltenham
Cheltenham
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
E. List 73', 69'
J. Roberts 7'
9/23/2023League OneLeague One · Round 9Completely-Suzuki Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Cheltenham37%
×Draw28%
Stevenage35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cheltenham
1.17
Stevenage
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cheltenham
1.19
Stevenage
0.95

allows per match

Cheltenham
1.32
Stevenage
1.16

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw
65%
Cheltenham or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
63%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+
15%
Stevenage wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals
69%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
33%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
11%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
32%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)
51%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.32 · 69 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.19 + Stevenage defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Stevenage attack 0.95 + Cheltenham defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Cheltenham scores more
37%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
35%

Cheltenham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. RobertsStevenageStevenage · M
8.6

Match Events

7'
J. Roberts
30'
Aidan Keena
45+3'
Ben Thompson
57'
E. List← C. McNeill
69'
E. List↳ J. Roberts
70'
C. Peupion← J. Malcolm
73'
E. List
76'
B. Williams← W. Ferry
76'
E. Chapman← O. Hammond
88'
A. MacDonald← J. Roberts
90+5'
F. Willcox← E. Bonds
90+5'
L. Thompson← B. Thompson
90+5'
H. Neal← F. Burns
90+5'
K. Hemmings← J. Reid

Possession

63%Cheltenham

Shots

9Cheltenham

Pass accuracy

55%Cheltenham

Statistics

CheltenhamStevenage
Overview
63%Possession37%
9Total Shots21
5Corners4
4Fouls14
Shots
9Total Shots21
2On Target9
4Off Target8
3Blocked4
6Inside Box14
3Outside Box7
Passing
63%Possession37%
543Total Passes309
425Accurate Passes201
78%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
4Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

League One: Cheltenham 0–3 Stevenage

Stevenage beat Cheltenham 3-0 in League One on September 23, 2023.

Goals: J. Roberts (7'), E. List (69', 73').

Cheltenham controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 21.

The match was played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium in Cheltenham, Gloucestershire.