Stevenage 1–1 Charlton: Result & Stats | League One

Stevenage

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Charlton

J. Reid 34'

C. Blackett-Taylor 90+2' (pen)

9/16/2023

League One · Round 8The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Stevenage40%

×Draw28%

Charlton31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Stevenage

1.23

Charlton

1.04

Stevenage creates 18% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 143 away

1.21

creates per match

1.22

0.86

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stevenage

1.21

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Stevenage

0.86

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

69%

Stevenage or Charlton

72%

Draw or Charlton

60%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

18%

Charlton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

71%

Stevenage 2+ goals

35%

Stevenage 3+ goals

13%

Charlton 1+ goals

65%

Charlton 2+ goals

28%

Charlton 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

57%

Charlton (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.86 · 76 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.21 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Charlton attack 1.22 + Stevenage defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stevenage scores more

40%

level

28%

Charlton scores more

31%

Stevenage at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Thompson

Stevenage · D

7.6

Match Events

34'

J. Reid↳ N. Freeman

51'

George Dobson

54'

Dan Butler

60'

T. Taylor← Karoy Anderson

60'

T. Thomas← J. Abankwah

60'

L. Watson← C. Campbell

61'

A. MacDonald← K. Hemmings

68'

Jamie Reid

76'

C. Aneke← M. Leaburn

76'

S. Tedić← T. Campbell

78'

J. Forster-Caskey← L. Thompson

80'

E. List← J. Reid

83'

84'

88'

90+10'

90+2'

C. Blackett-TaylorPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCharlton

Overview

43%Possession57%

9Total Shots12

5Corners4

10Fouls16

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target1

3Off Target5

3Blocked6

7Inside Box9

2Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

323Total Passes427

187Accurate Passes298

58%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

10Fouls16

3Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Charlton

Stevenage and Charlton drew 1-1 in League One on September 16, 2023.

Goals: J. Reid (34'), C. Blackett-Taylor (90+2' pen).

Charlton controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 9.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Charlton — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Charlton