Charlton 0–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League One

Charlton

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

4/1/2024

League One · Round 42The Valley

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Charlton45%

×Draw27%

Stevenage28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CharltonExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Charlton

1.40

Stevenage

1.04

Charlton creates 35% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 76 away

1.65

creates per match

0.95

1.13

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Charlton

1.65

Stevenage

0.95

allows per match

Charlton

1.13

Stevenage

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Charlton+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Charlton ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Charlton or draw

72%

Charlton or Stevenage

73%

Draw or Stevenage

55%

Winning margin

Charlton wins by 2+

22%

Stevenage wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Charlton 1+ goals

75%

Charlton 2+ goals

41%

Charlton 3+ goals

17%

Stevenage 1+ goals

65%

Stevenage 2+ goals

28%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Charlton (draw refunded)

62%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Charlton at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 144 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Charlton attack 1.65 + Stevenage defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stevenage attack 0.95 + Charlton defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Charlton scores more

45%

level

27%

Stevenage scores more

28%

Charlton at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Charlton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

C. Piergianni

Stevenage · D

8.5

Match Events

22'

Ben Thompson

43'

Tennai Watson

46'

V. Oliver← B. Thompson

46'

L. Thompson← N. Guinness-Walker

46'

62'

69'

73'

73'

H. White← J. Reid

76'

K. Hemmings← J. Roberts

88'

Harvey White

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CharltonStevenage

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots14

1Corners2

12Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target3

4Off Target6

3Blocked5

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

410Total Passes397

285Accurate Passes258

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides1