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Stevenage vs Carlisle — League One 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Carlisle
Carlisle
9/9/2023League OneLeague One · Round 7The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Stevenage51%
×Draw27%
Carlisle22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.44
Carlisle
0.85

Stevenage creates 69% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 23 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.17
Carlisle
0.87

allows per match

Stevenage
0.84
Carlisle
1.70

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Carlisle →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
78%
Stevenage or Carlisle
73%
Draw or Carlisle
49%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
25%
Carlisle wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
76%
Stevenage 2+ goals
42%
Stevenage 3+ goals
18%
Carlisle 1+ goals
57%
Carlisle 2+ goals
21%
Carlisle 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
70%
Carlisle (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.84 · 70 matches

Carlisle away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.17 + Carlisle defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.44

Carlisle attack 0.87 + Stevenage defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Stevenage scores more
51%
level
27%
Carlisle scores more
22%

Stevenage at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Carlisle

Stevenage and Carlisle drew 2-2 in League One on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.