Carlisle 0–0 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League Two

Carlisle

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

3/18/2023

League Two · Round 37Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Carlisle42%

×Draw28%

Stevenage30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.03

Carlisle

1.29

Stevenage

1.03

Carlisle creates 25% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 112 away

1.31

creates per match

0.87

1.20

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Carlisle

1.31

Stevenage

0.87

allows per match

Carlisle

1.20

Stevenage

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Stevenage

72%

Draw or Stevenage

58%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

19%

Stevenage wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

72%

Carlisle 2+ goals

37%

Carlisle 3+ goals

14%

Stevenage 1+ goals

64%

Stevenage 2+ goals

28%

Stevenage 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

59%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.20 · 133 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.28 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 1.31 + Stevenage defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Stevenage attack 0.87 + Carlisle defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carlisle scores more

42%

level

28%

Stevenage scores more

30%

Carlisle at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff