Stevenage 2–3 Carlisle: Result & Stats | League Two

Stevenage

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Carlisle

K. Guthrie 54', 25'

H. McKirdy 83', 38'

N. Thomas 52'

9/14/2019

League Two · Round 8The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage43%

×Draw27%

Carlisle30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.06

Stevenage

1.33

Carlisle

1.06

Stevenage creates 25% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 115 away

1.31

creates per match

1.07

1.04

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

70%

Stevenage or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

57%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

20%

Carlisle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

74%

Stevenage 2+ goals

38%

Stevenage 3+ goals

15%

Carlisle 1+ goals

65%

Carlisle 2+ goals

29%

Carlisle 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

59%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.33

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stevenage scores more

43%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

30%

Stevenage at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

K. Guthrie

Stevenage · F

9.0

Match Events

25'

K. Guthrie

38'

H. McKirdy↳ C. Elliot

52'

N. Thomas↳ H. McKirdy

54'

K. Guthrie↳ C. Stokes

57'

T. Denton← L. Fernandez

65'

E. List← C. Mackail-Smith

69'

Nathaniel Knight-Percival

71'

71'

75'

83'

86'

J. Cowley← Noor Husin

87'

Jack Bridge

90'

Byron Webster

90'

R. Loft← O. Olomola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageCarlisle

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots12

6Corners3

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots12

6On Target4

3Off Target4

5Blocked4

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

340Total Passes377

259Accurate Passes289

76%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

5Offsides1

League Two: Stevenage 2–3 Carlisle

Carlisle beat Stevenage 3-2 in League Two on September 14, 2019.

Goals: K. Guthrie (25', 54'), H. McKirdy (38', 83'), N. Thomas (52').

Carlisle controlled possession (53%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.

Stevenage vs Carlisle — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Stevenage 2–3 Carlisle