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Stevenage vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Stevenage
Stevenage
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
2/19/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 33The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Stevenage40%
×Draw27%
Bristol Rovers33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stevenage
1.31
Bristol Rovers
1.16

Stevenage creates 13% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 48 away

creates per match

Stevenage
1.22
Bristol Rovers
1.29

allows per match

Stevenage
1.02
Bristol Rovers
1.40

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par
Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw
67%
Stevenage or Bristol Rovers
73%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
60%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+
18%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals
73%
Stevenage 2+ goals
38%
Stevenage 3+ goals
14%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
69%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
32%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)
55%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.02 · 109 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.22 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bristol Rovers attack 1.29 + Stevenage defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stevenage scores more
40%
level
27%
Bristol Rovers scores more
33%

Stevenage at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stevenage vs Bristol Rovers

Bristol Rovers beat Stevenage 4-0 in League Two on February 19, 2022.

The match was played at The Lamex Stadium in Stevenage, Hertfordshire.