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Bristol Rovers vs Stevenage — League One 2018

Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stevenage
Stevenage
4/21/2025League OneLeague One · Round 44Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Bristol Rovers37%
×Draw28%
Stevenage34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bristol Rovers
1.20
Stevenage
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 133 home / 70 away

creates per match

Bristol Rovers
1.17
Stevenage
0.94

allows per match

Bristol Rovers
1.33
Stevenage
1.23

finishing

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bristol Rovers ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bristol Rovers or draw
66%
Bristol Rovers or Stevenage
72%
Draw or Stevenage
63%

Winning margin

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
16%
Stevenage wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
70%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
34%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
12%
Stevenage 1+ goals
68%
Stevenage 2+ goals
32%
Stevenage 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
52%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bristol Rovers at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 133 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bristol Rovers attack 1.17 + Stevenage defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.20

Stevenage attack 0.94 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Bristol Rovers scores more
37%
level
28%
Stevenage scores more
34%

Bristol Rovers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Bristol Rovers 0–1 Stevenage

Stevenage beat Bristol Rovers 1-0 in League One on April 21, 2025.

The match was played at Memorial Stadium in Bristol, Gloucestershire.