Stevenage 2–3 Bradford: Result & Stats | League Two

Stevenage

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Bradford

D. Sweeney 73'

C. Piergianni 26'

J. Walker 86'

A. Cook 56' (pen)

M. Derbyshire 49'

2/11/2023

League Two · Round 31The Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Stevenage40%

×Draw28%

Bradford32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StevenageExpected goals in this matchBradford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.09

Stevenage

1.27

Bradford

1.09

Stevenage creates 17% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 139 away

1.31

creates per match

1.15

1.04

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Stevenage

1.31

Bradford

1.15

allows per match

Stevenage

1.04

Bradford

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stevenage+0.00on par

Bradford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stevenage ↓

Bradford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Stevenage or draw

68%

Stevenage or Bradford

72%

Draw or Bradford

60%

Winning margin

Stevenage wins by 2+

18%

Bradford wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Stevenage 1+ goals

72%

Stevenage 2+ goals

36%

Stevenage 3+ goals

14%

Bradford 1+ goals

66%

Bradford 2+ goals

30%

Bradford 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Stevenage (draw refunded)

56%

Bradford (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stevenage at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.04 · 94 matches

Bradford away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.24 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stevenage attack 1.31 + Bradford defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bradford attack 1.15 + Stevenage defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stevenage scores more

40%

level

28%

Bradford scores more

32%

Stevenage at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stevenage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

A. Cook

Bradford · F

8.9

Match Events

7'

Adam Clayton

26'

C. Piergianni↳ J. Forster-Caskey

31'

Jamie Reid

34'

Sam Stubbs

45+3'

J. Tomkinson← L. James-Wildin

49'

M. Derbyshire↳ A. Cook

56'

A. CookPenalty

73'

D. Sweeney↳ J. Forster-Caskey

74'

Brad Halliday

76'

V. Oliver← M. Derbyshire

77'

C. Kelly← L. Ridehalgh

83'

L. Norris← J. Reid

83'

D. Rose← J. March

86'

J. Walker↳ A. Cook

90+8'

Thierry Nevers

90+4'

Ciaran Kelly

90'

J. Taylor← M. Bostwick

90'

T. Nevers← J. Walker

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

StevenageBradford

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots6

7Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots6

5On Target3

4Off Target2

6Blocked1

12Inside Box5

3Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

326Total Passes420

160Accurate Passes244

49%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

1Yellow Cards5

1Offsides1