Bradford 0–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats | League One

Bradford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stevenage

D. Kemp 61'

4/11/2026

League One · Round 43Valley Parade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Bradford52%

×Draw25%

Stevenage23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BradfordExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.97

Bradford

1.59

Stevenage

0.97

Bradford creates 64% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

1.01

0.94

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Bradford

1.42

Stevenage

1.01

allows per match

Bradford

0.94

Stevenage

1.77

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Bradford-0.32scores less

Stevenage-0.01on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bradford ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Bradford or draw

77%

Bradford or Stevenage

75%

Draw or Stevenage

48%

Winning margin

Bradford wins by 2+

27%

Stevenage wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bradford 1+ goals

80%

Bradford 2+ goals

47%

Bradford 3+ goals

21%

Stevenage 1+ goals

62%

Stevenage 2+ goals

25%

Stevenage 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bradford (draw refunded)

69%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bradford at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 10 matches

Stevenage away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bradford attack 1.42 + Stevenage defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.59

Stevenage attack 1.01 + Bradford defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Bradford scores more

52%

level

25%

Stevenage scores more

23%

Bradford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bradford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Marschall

Stevenage · G

7.9

Match Events

10'

D. Sweeney← L. Freestone

18'

G. Lapslie← B. Pointon

61'

D. Kemp

64'

Curtis Tilt

64'

Daniel Kemp

67'

K. Jackson←

68'

N. Powell← J. Metcalfe

73'

Charlie Goode

76'

Dan Sweeney

78'

P. Mullin← J. Wright

78'

B. Lubala← M. Phillips

78'

L. Thompson← D. Kemp

88'

J. Houghton← D. Phillips

89'

S. Earley← J. Reid

90+1'

Ibou Touray

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BradfordStevenage

Overview

58%Possession42%

13Total Shots3

1.64Expected Goals (xG)0.26

1Corners0

12Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots3

5On Target1

4Off Target2

4Blocked0

7Inside Box3

6Outside Box0

Passing

58%Possession42%

390Total Passes291

243Accurate Passes150

62%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2