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Steve Biko vs PSV Wellingara — GFA League 2020

Steve Biko
Steve Biko
FT
0 – 0
PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
4/17/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Steve Biko38%
×Draw35%
PSV Wellingara27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Steve Biko
0.90
PSV Wellingara
0.72

Steve Biko creates 25% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 15 away

creates per match

Steve Biko
0.86
PSV Wellingara
0.67

allows per match

Steve Biko
0.76
PSV Wellingara
0.93

finishing

Steve Biko+0.00on par
PSV Wellingara+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Steve Biko ↓

PSV Wellingara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Steve Biko or draw
73%
Steve Biko or PSV Wellingara
65%
Draw or PSV Wellingara
62%

Winning margin

Steve Biko wins by 2+
13%
PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Steve Biko 1+ goals
59%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
23%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
6%
PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
51%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
16%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Steve Biko (draw refunded)
58%
PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Steve Biko at home — creates 0.86, concedes 0.76 · 76 matches

PSV Wellingara away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + PSV Wellingara defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

PSV Wellingara attack 0.67 + Steve Biko defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Steve Biko scores more
38%
level
35%
PSV Wellingara scores more
27%

Steve Biko at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Steve Biko vs PSV Wellingara

Steve Biko and PSV Wellingara drew 0-0 in GFA League on April 17, 2023.