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PSV Wellingara vs Steve Biko — GFA League 2020

PSV Wellingara
PSV Wellingara
FT
0 – 1
Steve Biko
Steve Biko
1/8/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

PSV Wellingara25%
×Draw27%
Steve Biko48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

PSV Wellingara
0.96
Steve Biko
1.43

Steve Biko creates 49% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 74 away

creates per match

PSV Wellingara
1.00
Steve Biko
0.86

allows per match

PSV Wellingara
2.00
Steve Biko
0.92

finishing

PSV Wellingara+0.00on par
Steve Biko+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

PSV Wellingara ↓

Steve Biko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

PSV Wellingara or draw
52%
PSV Wellingara or Steve Biko
73%
Draw or Steve Biko
75%

Winning margin

PSV Wellingara wins by 2+
9%
Steve Biko wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

PSV Wellingara 1+ goals
62%
PSV Wellingara 2+ goals
25%
PSV Wellingara 3+ goals
7%
Steve Biko 1+ goals
76%
Steve Biko 2+ goals
42%
Steve Biko 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

PSV Wellingara (draw refunded)
35%
Steve Biko (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

PSV Wellingara at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Steve Biko away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.92 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

PSV Wellingara attack 1.00 + Steve Biko defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.96

Steve Biko attack 0.86 + PSV Wellingara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

PSV Wellingara scores more
25%
level
27%
Steve Biko scores more
48%

Steve Biko at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Steve Biko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: PSV Wellingara vs Steve Biko

Steve Biko beat PSV Wellingara 1-0 in GFA League on January 8, 2023.