Vllaznia Shkodër 2–0 Apolonia Fier: Result & Stats

Vllaznia Shkodër

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Apolonia Fier

G. Lika 57'

S. Sosa 48'

2/22/2015

Superliga · Round 23Stadiumi Loro Boriçi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vllaznia Shkodër61%

×Draw23%

Apolonia Fier15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vllaznia ShkodërExpected goals in this matchApolonia Fier

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.73

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.74

Apolonia Fier

0.73

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 138% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 19 away

1.43

creates per match

0.53

0.92

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.43

Apolonia Fier

0.53

allows per match

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.92

Apolonia Fier

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vllaznia Shkodër ↓

Apolonia Fier →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Vllaznia Shkodër or draw

85%

Vllaznia Shkodër or Apolonia Fier

77%

Draw or Apolonia Fier

39%

Winning margin

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

35%

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

82%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

52%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

25%

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

52%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

17%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

80%

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vllaznia Shkodër at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.92 · 133 matches

Apolonia Fier away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 1.43 + Apolonia Fier defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.74

Apolonia Fier attack 0.53 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

61%

level

23%

Apolonia Fier scores more

15%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

S. Sosa

53'

K. Broshka← E. Idrizaj

57'

G. Lika

60'

M. Rajković← S. Adekunle

64'

D. Pjeshka← A. Sykaj

70'

A. Marku← A. Baçi

82'

S. Guri← S. Sosa

82'

I. Balaj← M. Uzuni

Vllaznia

Apolonia

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Sosa

64'▲D. Pjeshka←▼A. Sykaj

70'▲A. Marku←▼A. Baçi

82'▲S. Guri←▼S. Sosa

Vllaznia Shkodër substitutes

PjeshkaMarkuGuriHajdariDemaÇinariHallunaj

53'▲K. Broshka←▼E. Idrizaj

60'▲M. Rajković←▼S. Adekunle

82'▲I. Balaj←▼M. Uzuni

Apolonia Fier substitutes

BroshkaRajkovićBalajAndoniMiçoArapiĐorđević