Apolonia Fier 0–6 Vllaznia Shkodër: Result & Stats

Apolonia Fier

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 3

Vllaznia Shkodër

A. Hoxhaj 90', 34'

T. Brdarić 82'

Victor Da Silva 52', 15'

H. Dilaver 23'

4/18/2021

Superliga · Round 28Stadiumi Loni Papuçiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Apolonia Fier24%

×Draw28%

Vllaznia Shkodër48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Apolonia FierExpected goals in this matchVllaznia Shkodër

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.85

1.32

Apolonia Fier

0.85

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.32

Vllaznia Shkodër creates 55% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 129 away

0.67

creates per match

0.97

1.67

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Apolonia Fier

0.67

Vllaznia Shkodër

0.97

allows per match

Apolonia Fier

1.67

Vllaznia Shkodër

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Apolonia Fier+0.00on par

Vllaznia Shkodër+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Apolonia Fier ↓

Vllaznia Shkodër →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Apolonia Fier or draw

52%

Apolonia Fier or Vllaznia Shkodër

72%

Draw or Vllaznia Shkodër

76%

Winning margin

Apolonia Fier wins by 2+

8%

Vllaznia Shkodër wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Apolonia Fier 1+ goals

57%

Apolonia Fier 2+ goals

21%

Apolonia Fier 3+ goals

5%

Vllaznia Shkodër 1+ goals

73%

Vllaznia Shkodër 2+ goals

38%

Vllaznia Shkodër 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Apolonia Fier (draw refunded)

34%

Vllaznia Shkodër (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Apolonia Fier at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 18 matches

Vllaznia Shkodër away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.03 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Apolonia Fier attack 0.67 + Vllaznia Shkodër defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Vllaznia Shkodër attack 0.97 + Apolonia Fier defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Apolonia Fier scores more

24%

level

28%

Vllaznia Shkodër scores more

48%

Vllaznia Shkodër at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Vllaznia Shkodër will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

23'

25'

34'

35'

46'

52'

57'

57'

57'

68'

74'

75'

77'

E. Nya-Vedji← Victor Da Silva

77'

82'

85'

87'

89'

90'

Apolonia

Vllaznia

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽2

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Cammarata

35'▲R. Hebeja←▼K. Yeboah

46'▲M. Vasilj←▼S. Omeri

75'▲M. Sota←▼S. Levendi

85'▲K. Papa←▼M. Shanaj

Apolonia Fier substitutes

HebejaVasiljSotaPapaAgyareDudaÇako

Manager: T. Brdarić

57'▲A. Kalaja←▼A. Krymi

57'▲M. Kalezić←▼D. Imeri

57'▲T. Brdarić←▼M. Adili

77'▲E. Nya-Vedji←▼Victor Da Silva

77'▲K. Qarri←▼B. Zogović

Vllaznia Shkodër substitutes

KalajaKalezićBrdarićNya-VedjiQarriKrujaHoxhajCisséHoxha