Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Štětí vs Baník Souš — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Štětí
Štětí
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baník Souš
Baník Souš
3/12/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 16Městský Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Štětí29%
×Draw24%
Baník Souš47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Štětí
1.27
Baník Souš
1.68

Baník Souš creates 32% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 23 away

creates per match

Štětí
1.77
Baník Souš
2.00

allows per match

Štětí
1.36
Baník Souš
0.78

finishing

Štětí+0.00on par
Baník Souš+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Štětí ↓

Baník Souš →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Štětí or draw
53%
Štětí or Baník Souš
76%
Draw or Baník Souš
71%

Winning margin

Štětí wins by 2+
12%
Baník Souš wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Štětí 1+ goals
72%
Štětí 2+ goals
36%
Štětí 3+ goals
14%
Baník Souš 1+ goals
81%
Baník Souš 2+ goals
50%
Baník Souš 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Štětí (draw refunded)
38%
Baník Souš (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Štětí at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.36 · 84 matches

Baník Souš away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Štětí attack 1.77 + Baník Souš defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baník Souš attack 2.00 + Štětí defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Štětí scores more
29%
level
24%
Baník Souš scores more
47%

Baník Souš at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Štětí 0–1 Baník Souš

Baník Souš beat Štětí 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie B on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Městský Stadion in Štětí.