Baník Souš 1–1 Štětí: Result & Stats

Baník Souš

FT

1 – 1

Štětí

7/31/2021

4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 1Stadion Zdeňka Fibicha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Baník Souš71%

×Draw17%

Štětí13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník SoušExpected goals in this matchŠtětí

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.57

1.00

Baník Souš

2.57

Štětí

1.00

Baník Souš creates 157% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 84 away

2.88

creates per match

1.25

0.76

allows per match

2.26

creates per match

Baník Souš

2.88

Štětí

1.25

allows per match

Baník Souš

0.76

Štětí

2.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Souš+0.00on par

Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Souš ↓

Štětí →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Baník Souš or draw

87%

Baník Souš or Štětí

83%

Draw or Štětí

29%

Winning margin

Baník Souš wins by 2+

49%

Štětí wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Baník Souš 1+ goals

92%

Baník Souš 2+ goals

72%

Baník Souš 3+ goals

47%

Štětí 1+ goals

63%

Štětí 2+ goals

26%

Štětí 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baník Souš (draw refunded)

85%

Štětí (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Souš at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.76 · 25 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Souš attack 2.88 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 2.57

Štětí attack 1.25 + Baník Souš defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Baník Souš scores more

71%

level

17%

Štětí scores more

13%

Baník Souš at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Baník Souš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff