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Šternberk vs Nový Jičín — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Šternberk
Šternberk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
8/19/20234. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Stadion Šternberk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Šternberk55%
×Draw21%
Nový Jičín24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šternberk
2.06
Nový Jičín
1.29

Šternberk creates 60% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 15 away

creates per match

Šternberk
1.79
Nový Jičín
1.07

allows per match

Šternberk
1.50
Nový Jičín
2.33

finishing

Šternberk+0.00on par
Nový Jičín+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šternberk ↓

Nový Jičín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Šternberk or draw
76%
Šternberk or Nový Jičín
79%
Draw or Nový Jičín
45%

Winning margin

Šternberk wins by 2+
33%
Nový Jičín wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Šternberk 1+ goals
87%
Šternberk 2+ goals
61%
Šternberk 3+ goals
34%
Nový Jičín 1+ goals
72%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
37%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šternberk (draw refunded)
70%
Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šternberk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.50 · 56 matches

Nový Jičín away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šternberk attack 1.79 + Nový Jičín defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.06

Nový Jičín attack 1.07 + Šternberk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Šternberk scores more
55%
level
21%
Nový Jičín scores more
24%

Šternberk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Šternberk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Šternberk 1–0 Nový Jičín

Šternberk beat Nový Jičín 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Šternberk in Šternberk.