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Nový Jičín vs Šternberk — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Nový Jičín
Nový Jičín
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Šternberk
Šternberk
3/23/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18Stadion TJ Nový Jičín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nový Jičín31%
×Draw25%
Šternberk43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nový Jičín
1.23
Šternberk
1.50

Šternberk creates 22% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Nový Jičín
0.93
Šternberk
1.21

allows per match

Nový Jičín
1.80
Šternberk
1.52

finishing

Nový Jičín+0.00on par
Šternberk+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nový Jičín ↓

Šternberk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nový Jičín or draw
57%
Nový Jičín or Šternberk
75%
Draw or Šternberk
69%

Winning margin

Nový Jičín wins by 2+
13%
Šternberk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nový Jičín 1+ goals
71%
Nový Jičín 2+ goals
35%
Nový Jičín 3+ goals
13%
Šternberk 1+ goals
78%
Šternberk 2+ goals
44%
Šternberk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nový Jičín (draw refunded)
42%
Šternberk (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nový Jičín at home — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

Šternberk away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nový Jičín attack 0.93 + Šternberk defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.23

Šternberk attack 1.21 + Nový Jičín defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nový Jičín scores more
31%
level
25%
Šternberk scores more
43%

Šternberk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Šternberk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Nový Jičín 0–0 Šternberk

Nový Jičín and Šternberk drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Nový Jičín in Nový Jičín.