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Stern vs Pampow — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Pampow
Pampow
2/6/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 15Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern36%
×Draw22%
Pampow41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.68
Pampow
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 38 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Pampow
1.50

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Pampow
2.24

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Pampow+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Pampow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Stern or draw
59%
Stern or Pampow
78%
Draw or Pampow
64%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
18%
Pampow wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
81%
Stern 2+ goals
50%
Stern 3+ goals
24%
Pampow 1+ goals
83%
Pampow 2+ goals
54%
Pampow 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
47%
Pampow (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Pampow away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.24 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Pampow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pampow attack 1.50 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Stern scores more
36%
level
22%
Pampow scores more
41%

Pampow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pampow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Stern 0 – 3 Pampow

Pampow beat Stern 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.