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Pampow vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Pampow
Pampow
FT
0 – 2
Stern
Stern
8/16/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Sportplatz Pampow

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Pampow39%
×Draw23%
Stern38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pampow
1.69
Stern
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 21 away

creates per match

Pampow
1.63
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Pampow
2.00
Stern
1.76

finishing

Pampow+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pampow ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Pampow or draw
62%
Pampow or Stern
77%
Draw or Stern
61%

Winning margin

Pampow wins by 2+
20%
Stern wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pampow 1+ goals
82%
Pampow 2+ goals
50%
Pampow 3+ goals
24%
Stern 1+ goals
81%
Stern 2+ goals
49%
Stern 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Pampow (draw refunded)
51%
Stern (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pampow at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pampow attack 1.63 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.69

Stern attack 1.29 + Pampow defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pampow scores more
39%
level
23%
Stern scores more
38%

Pampow at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Pampow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pampow 0 – 2 Stern

Stern beat Pampow 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Pampow in Pampow.