Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Stern vs Hertha Zehlendorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
FT
1 – 1
Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
8/23/2020Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 2Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern20%
×Draw20%
Hertha Zehlendorf60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.21
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.22

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 83% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 52 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Hertha Zehlendorf
2.33

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Hertha Zehlendorf
1.31

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Stern or draw
40%
Stern or Hertha Zehlendorf
80%
Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf
80%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
8%
Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
70%
Stern 2+ goals
34%
Stern 3+ goals
12%
Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
89%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
65%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
25%
Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.31 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.33 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Stern scores more
20%
level
20%
Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
60%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stern vs Hertha Zehlendorf

Stern and Hertha Zehlendorf drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 23, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.