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Hertha Zehlendorf vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Hertha Zehlendorf
Hertha Zehlendorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Stern
Stern
4/1/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 22Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf63%
×Draw19%
Stern18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.31
Stern
1.14

Hertha Zehlendorf creates 103% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
2.85
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf
0.98
Stern
1.76

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf or draw
82%
Hertha Zehlendorf or Stern
81%
Draw or Stern
37%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf wins by 2+
41%
Stern wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf 1+ goals
90%
Hertha Zehlendorf 2+ goals
67%
Hertha Zehlendorf 3+ goals
40%
Stern 1+ goals
68%
Stern 2+ goals
32%
Stern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf (draw refunded)
78%
Stern (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf at home — creates 2.85, concedes 0.98 · 52 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf attack 2.85 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.31

Stern attack 1.29 + Hertha Zehlendorf defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf scores more
63%
level
19%
Stern scores more
18%

Hertha Zehlendorf at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Hertha Zehlendorf 1–0 Stern

Hertha Zehlendorf beat Stern 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 1, 2022.

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.