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Stern vs Greifswalder FC — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
5/8/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 27Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern18%
×Draw20%
Greifswalder FC61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.08
Greifswalder FC
2.13

Greifswalder FC creates 97% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 21 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Greifswalder FC
2.14

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Greifswalder FC
1.05

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Greifswalder FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Greifswalder FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stern or draw
39%
Stern or Greifswalder FC
80%
Draw or Greifswalder FC
82%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
7%
Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
66%
Stern 2+ goals
29%
Stern 3+ goals
10%
Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
88%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
63%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
23%
Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Greifswalder FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.05 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Greifswalder FC attack 2.14 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Stern scores more
18%
level
20%
Greifswalder FC scores more
61%

Greifswalder FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Stern 1–3 Greifswalder FC

Greifswalder FC beat Stern 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on May 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.