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Greifswalder FC vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Greifswalder FC
Greifswalder FC
CANC
13:00
Stern
Stern
2/28/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 21Volksstadion Greifswald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Greifswalder FC53%
×Draw23%
Stern24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greifswalder FC
1.85
Stern
1.17

Greifswalder FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Greifswalder FC
1.95
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Greifswalder FC
1.05
Stern
1.76

finishing

Greifswalder FC+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greifswalder FC ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Greifswalder FC or draw
76%
Greifswalder FC or Stern
77%
Draw or Stern
47%

Winning margin

Greifswalder FC wins by 2+
30%
Stern wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Greifswalder FC 1+ goals
84%
Greifswalder FC 2+ goals
55%
Greifswalder FC 3+ goals
28%
Stern 1+ goals
69%
Stern 2+ goals
33%
Stern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Greifswalder FC (draw refunded)
69%
Stern (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greifswalder FC at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greifswalder FC attack 1.95 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.85

Stern attack 1.29 + Greifswalder FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Greifswalder FC scores more
53%
level
23%
Stern scores more
24%

Greifswalder FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Greifswalder FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Greifswalder FC host Stern

February 28, 2021: Greifswalder FC take on Stern in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Greifswalder FC host Stern at Volksstadion Greifswald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.