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Stern vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2/27/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 18Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern25%
×Draw22%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.27
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.93

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 76 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.75

allows per match

Stern
2.11
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.43

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

Eintracht Mahlsdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Stern or draw
47%
Stern or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
78%
Draw or Eintracht Mahlsdorf
75%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
10%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
72%
Stern 2+ goals
36%
Stern 3+ goals
14%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
57%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
32%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 1.75 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Stern scores more
25%
level
22%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
53%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Stern 2–2 Eintracht Mahlsdorf

Stern and Eintracht Mahlsdorf drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on February 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.