Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
Eintracht Mahlsdorf
CANC
12:00
Stern
Stern
6/12/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 37Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Eintracht Mahlsdorf51%
×Draw22%
Stern27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.90
Stern
1.32

Eintracht Mahlsdorf creates 44% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 21 away

creates per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
2.03
Stern
1.29

allows per match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf
1.35
Stern
1.76

finishing

Eintracht Mahlsdorf+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Mahlsdorf ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Eintracht Mahlsdorf or draw
73%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf or Stern
78%
Draw or Stern
49%

Winning margin

Eintracht Mahlsdorf wins by 2+
29%
Stern wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Eintracht Mahlsdorf 1+ goals
85%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 2+ goals
56%
Eintracht Mahlsdorf 3+ goals
29%
Stern 1+ goals
73%
Stern 2+ goals
38%
Stern 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Mahlsdorf (draw refunded)
66%
Stern (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.35 · 78 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Mahlsdorf attack 2.03 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.90

Stern attack 1.29 + Eintracht Mahlsdorf defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Eintracht Mahlsdorf scores more
51%
level
22%
Stern scores more
27%

Eintracht Mahlsdorf at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eintracht Mahlsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eintracht Mahlsdorf vs Stern — Match Preview

Eintracht Mahlsdorf face Stern on June 12, 2022 in this Oberliga - Nordost-Nord fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Eintracht Mahlsdorf host Stern at Kunstrasenplatz Am Rosenhag KR.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.