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Stern vs CFC Hertha — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Stern
Stern
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
4/24/2022Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 25Sportplatz Schildhornstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Stern31%
×Draw24%
CFC Hertha46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stern
1.36
CFC Hertha
1.71

CFC Hertha creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 44 away

creates per match

Stern
1.11
CFC Hertha
1.30

allows per match

Stern
2.11
CFC Hertha
1.61

finishing

Stern+0.00on par
CFC Hertha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stern ↓

CFC Hertha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Stern or draw
54%
Stern or CFC Hertha
76%
Draw or CFC Hertha
69%

Winning margin

Stern wins by 2+
13%
CFC Hertha wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Stern 1+ goals
74%
Stern 2+ goals
39%
Stern 3+ goals
16%
CFC Hertha 1+ goals
82%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
51%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Stern (draw refunded)
40%
CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stern at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

CFC Hertha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.61 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stern attack 1.11 + CFC Hertha defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.36

CFC Hertha attack 1.30 + Stern defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Stern scores more
31%
level
24%
CFC Hertha scores more
46%

CFC Hertha at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stern vs CFC Hertha

CFC Hertha beat Stern 1-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Schildhornstraße in Berlin.