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CFC Hertha vs Stern — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

CFC Hertha
CFC Hertha
CANC
12:00
Stern
Stern
5/2/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 29Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

CFC Hertha50%
×Draw23%
Stern28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CFC Hertha
1.83
Stern
1.31

CFC Hertha creates 40% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 21 away

creates per match

CFC Hertha
1.91
Stern
1.29

allows per match

CFC Hertha
1.33
Stern
1.76

finishing

CFC Hertha+0.00on par
Stern+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFC Hertha ↓

Stern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

CFC Hertha or draw
72%
CFC Hertha or Stern
77%
Draw or Stern
50%

Winning margin

CFC Hertha wins by 2+
27%
Stern wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CFC Hertha 1+ goals
84%
CFC Hertha 2+ goals
54%
CFC Hertha 3+ goals
28%
Stern 1+ goals
73%
Stern 2+ goals
38%
Stern 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

CFC Hertha (draw refunded)
64%
Stern (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFC Hertha at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

Stern away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFC Hertha attack 1.91 + Stern defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.83

Stern attack 1.29 + CFC Hertha defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CFC Hertha scores more
50%
level
23%
Stern scores more
28%

CFC Hertha at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CFC Hertha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CFC Hertha face Stern (Oberliga - Nordost-Nord)

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord returns with CFC Hertha hosting Stern. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

CFC Hertha host Stern at Sportplatz Sömmeringstraße.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.