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Sterkrade-Nord vs SF Baumberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
FT
1 – 5
SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
10/7/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 4Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord41%
×Draw21%
SF Baumberg38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
1.98
SF Baumberg
1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
SF Baumberg
1.91

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
SF Baumberg
1.93

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
SF Baumberg+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

SF Baumberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
62%
Sterkrade-Nord or SF Baumberg
79%
Draw or SF Baumberg
59%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
22%
SF Baumberg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
86%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
59%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
31%
SF Baumberg 1+ goals
85%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
57%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
52%
SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

SF Baumberg away — creates 1.91, concedes 1.93 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + SF Baumberg defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.98

SF Baumberg attack 1.91 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
41%
level
21%
SF Baumberg scores more
38%

Sterkrade-Nord at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sterkrade-Nord vs SF Baumberg

SF Baumberg beat Sterkrade-Nord 5-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 7, 2021.

The match was played at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz in Oberhausen.