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SF Baumberg vs Sterkrade-Nord — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

SF Baumberg
SF Baumberg
FT
2 – 3
Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
10/21/2020Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 10MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

SF Baumberg60%
×Draw19%
Sterkrade-Nord21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SF Baumberg
2.48
Sterkrade-Nord
1.42

SF Baumberg creates 75% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

SF Baumberg
2.10
Sterkrade-Nord
1.55

allows per match

SF Baumberg
1.29
Sterkrade-Nord
2.85

finishing

SF Baumberg+0.00on par
Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SF Baumberg ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SF Baumberg or draw
79%
SF Baumberg or Sterkrade-Nord
81%
Draw or Sterkrade-Nord
40%

Winning margin

SF Baumberg wins by 2+
39%
Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SF Baumberg 1+ goals
92%
SF Baumberg 2+ goals
70%
SF Baumberg 3+ goals
44%
Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
76%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
41%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SF Baumberg (draw refunded)
74%
Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SF Baumberg at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SF Baumberg attack 2.10 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.48

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.55 + SF Baumberg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

SF Baumberg scores more
60%
level
19%
Sterkrade-Nord scores more
21%

SF Baumberg at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SF Baumberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: SF Baumberg 2–3 Sterkrade-Nord

Sterkrade-Nord beat SF Baumberg 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at MEGA-Stadion Sandstraße in Monheim am Rhein.