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Sterkrade-Nord vs 1.FC Monchengladbach — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Sterkrade-Nord
Sterkrade-Nord
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.FC Monchengladbach
12/19/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 17Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Sterkrade-Nord64%
×Draw17%
1.FC Monchengladbach18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sterkrade-Nord
2.70
1.FC Monchengladbach
1.41

Sterkrade-Nord creates 91% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sterkrade-Nord
2.04
1.FC Monchengladbach
0.91

allows per match

Sterkrade-Nord
1.91
1.FC Monchengladbach
3.36

finishing

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par
1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sterkrade-Nord ↓

1.FC Monchengladbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Sterkrade-Nord or draw
82%
Sterkrade-Nord or 1.FC Monchengladbach
83%
Draw or 1.FC Monchengladbach
36%

Winning margin

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+
43%
1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals
93%
Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals
75%
Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals
50%
1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals
76%
1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals
41%
1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)
78%
1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sterkrade-Nord at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

1.FC Monchengladbach away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sterkrade-Nord attack 2.04 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.36 → ÷2 → 2.70

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 0.91 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sterkrade-Nord scores more
64%
level
17%
1.FC Monchengladbach scores more
18%

Sterkrade-Nord at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sterkrade-Nord vs 1.FC Monchengladbach

Sterkrade-Nord beat 1.FC Monchengladbach 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Sterkrade Nord Kunstrasenplatz in Oberhausen.