1.FC Monchengladbach 1–4 Sterkrade-Nord

1.FC Monchengladbach

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sterkrade-Nord

5/7/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - Relegation Round - 6Ernst Reuter Kampfbahn Platz 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

1.FC Monchengladbach33%

×Draw19%

Sterkrade-Nord48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1.FC MonchengladbachExpected goals in this matchSterkrade-Nord

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.52

1.FC Monchengladbach

2.09

Sterkrade-Nord

2.52

Sterkrade-Nord creates 21% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

1.33

creates per match

1.55

3.48

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

1.FC Monchengladbach

1.33

Sterkrade-Nord

1.55

allows per match

1.FC Monchengladbach

3.48

Sterkrade-Nord

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1.FC Monchengladbach+0.00on par

Sterkrade-Nord+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1.FC Monchengladbach ↓

Sterkrade-Nord →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

1.FC Monchengladbach or draw

52%

1.FC Monchengladbach or Sterkrade-Nord

81%

Draw or Sterkrade-Nord

67%

Winning margin

1.FC Monchengladbach wins by 2+

18%

Sterkrade-Nord wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

1.FC Monchengladbach 1+ goals

88%

1.FC Monchengladbach 2+ goals

62%

1.FC Monchengladbach 3+ goals

34%

Sterkrade-Nord 1+ goals

92%

Sterkrade-Nord 2+ goals

71%

Sterkrade-Nord 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

1.FC Monchengladbach (draw refunded)

41%

Sterkrade-Nord (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1.FC Monchengladbach at home — creates 1.33, concedes 3.48 · 21 matches

Sterkrade-Nord away — creates 1.55, concedes 2.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1.FC Monchengladbach attack 1.33 + Sterkrade-Nord defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sterkrade-Nord attack 1.55 + 1.FC Monchengladbach defence 3.48 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1.FC Monchengladbach scores more

33%

level

19%

Sterkrade-Nord scores more

48%

Sterkrade-Nord at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sterkrade-Nord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff