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Stepojevac Vaga vs Prva Iskra — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
FT
2 – 3
Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
6/1/2024Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 30FK Brodarac Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga45%
×Draw26%
Prva Iskra29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stepojevac Vaga
1.46
Prva Iskra
1.13

Stepojevac Vaga creates 29% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 71 away

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.47
Prva Iskra
1.23

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.03
Prva Iskra
1.44

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par
Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Prva Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw
71%
Stepojevac Vaga or Prva Iskra
74%
Draw or Prva Iskra
55%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
22%
Prva Iskra wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
77%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
43%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
18%
Prva Iskra 1+ goals
68%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
31%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
60%
Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.46

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more
45%
level
26%
Prva Iskra scores more
29%

Stepojevac Vaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stepojevac Vaga vs Prva Iskra

Prva Iskra beat Stepojevac Vaga 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at FK Brodarac Stadion in Novi Beograd.