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Prva Iskra vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
FT
2 – 2
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
11/18/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 15Stadion FK Prva Iskra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Prva Iskra40%
×Draw26%
Stepojevac Vaga33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prva Iskra
1.36
Stepojevac Vaga
1.22

Prva Iskra creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 85 away

creates per match

Prva Iskra
1.41
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

Prva Iskra
1.32
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

Prva Iskra+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prva Iskra ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Prva Iskra or draw
67%
Prva Iskra or Stepojevac Vaga
74%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
60%

Winning margin

Prva Iskra wins by 2+
18%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Prva Iskra 1+ goals
74%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
39%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
16%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
70%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
34%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
54%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prva Iskra at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.32 · 71 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prva Iskra attack 1.41 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Prva Iskra defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Prva Iskra scores more
40%
level
26%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
33%

Prva Iskra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Prva Iskra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Prva Iskra 2–2 Stepojevac Vaga

Prva Iskra and Stepojevac Vaga drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Prva Iskra in Barič.