Stepojevac Vaga 0–1 Padinska Skela: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

0 – 1

Padinska Skela

3/15/2024

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga52%

×Draw25%

Padinska Skela24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchPadinska Skela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.02

Stepojevac Vaga

1.63

Padinska Skela

1.02

Stepojevac Vaga creates 60% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 27 away

1.47

creates per match

1.00

1.03

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.47

Padinska Skela

1.00

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.03

Padinska Skela

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Padinska Skela+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Padinska Skela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

76%

Stepojevac Vaga or Padinska Skela

75%

Draw or Padinska Skela

48%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

27%

Padinska Skela wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

80%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

48%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

22%

Padinska Skela 1+ goals

64%

Padinska Skela 2+ goals

27%

Padinska Skela 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

68%

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Padinska Skela away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.78 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Padinska Skela defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.63

Padinska Skela attack 1.00 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

52%

level

25%

Padinska Skela scores more

24%

Stepojevac Vaga at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff