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Padinska Skela vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Padinska Skela
Padinska Skela
FT
1 – 3
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
8/27/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 3Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Padinska Skela42%
×Draw27%
Stepojevac Vaga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Padinska Skela
1.34
Stepojevac Vaga
1.09

Padinska Skela creates 23% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 85 away

creates per match

Padinska Skela
1.36
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

Padinska Skela
1.07
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

Padinska Skela+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Padinska Skela ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Padinska Skela or draw
70%
Padinska Skela or Stepojevac Vaga
73%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
58%

Winning margin

Padinska Skela wins by 2+
20%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Padinska Skela 1+ goals
74%
Padinska Skela 2+ goals
39%
Padinska Skela 3+ goals
15%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
66%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
30%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Padinska Skela (draw refunded)
58%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Padinska Skela at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Padinska Skela attack 1.36 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Padinska Skela defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Padinska Skela scores more
42%
level
27%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
30%

Padinska Skela at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Padinska Skela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Padinska Skela 1–3 Stepojevac Vaga

Stepojevac Vaga beat Padinska Skela 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK PKB Padinska Skela in Padinska Skela.