Stepojevac Vaga 1–0 Jedinstvo Su: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Jedinstvo Su

8/11/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 1Vaga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga47%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo Su26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo Su

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.01

Stepojevac Vaga

1.45

Jedinstvo Su

1.01

Stepojevac Vaga creates 44% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 100 away

1.47

creates per match

0.99

1.03

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.47

Jedinstvo Su

0.99

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.03

Jedinstvo Su

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Jedinstvo Su →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

74%

Stepojevac Vaga or Jedinstvo Su

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo Su

53%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

23%

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

77%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

42%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

18%

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals

64%

Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals

27%

Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

64%

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Jedinstvo Su away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jedinstvo Su attack 0.99 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

47%

level

26%

Jedinstvo Su scores more

26%

Stepojevac Vaga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff