Jedinstvo Su 1–2 Stepojevac Vaga: Result & Stats

Jedinstvo Su

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Stepojevac Vaga

3/30/2025

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 18Stadion FK Jedinstvo Surčin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Jedinstvo Su42%

×Draw28%

Stepojevac Vaga30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jedinstvo SuExpected goals in this matchStepojevac Vaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Jedinstvo Su

1.31

Stepojevac Vaga

1.06

Jedinstvo Su creates 24% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 85 away

1.31

creates per match

1.11

1.00

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Jedinstvo Su

1.31

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

allows per match

Jedinstvo Su

1.00

Stepojevac Vaga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jedinstvo Su+0.00on par

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Su ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Su or draw

70%

Jedinstvo Su or Stepojevac Vaga

72%

Draw or Stepojevac Vaga

58%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Su wins by 2+

19%

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Su 1+ goals

73%

Jedinstvo Su 2+ goals

38%

Jedinstvo Su 3+ goals

14%

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

65%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

29%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Su (draw refunded)

58%

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Su at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 97 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Su attack 1.31 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.31

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Jedinstvo Su defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Jedinstvo Su scores more

42%

level

28%

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

30%

Jedinstvo Su at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Jedinstvo Su will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff