Stepojevac Vaga 0–1 Grafičar: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Grafičar

V. Vukojevic 68'

10/10/2025

Prva Liga · Round 13Stadion Bezanija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga37%

×Draw28%

Grafičar35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchGrafičar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

Stepojevac Vaga

1.17

Grafičar

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 125 away

0.95

creates per match

1.14

1.11

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

0.95

Grafičar

1.14

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

Grafičar

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Grafičar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

65%

Stepojevac Vaga or Grafičar

72%

Draw or Grafičar

63%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

15%

Grafičar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

69%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

33%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

11%

Grafičar 1+ goals

68%

Grafičar 2+ goals

31%

Grafičar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

51%

Grafičar (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.95 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

37%

level

28%

Grafičar scores more

35%

Stepojevac Vaga at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

D. Djuric

44'

I. Martins

46'

V. Milosavljev← I. Martins

59'

S. Velickovic

65'

P. Obasi← J. Tucker

68'

V. Vukojevic

69'

Z. Arsic← L. Pavlovic

69'

T. Todorovic← M. Bakic

77'

I. A. Adeleke← J. Jevremovic

77'

I. Lakicevic← D. Djuric

81'

V. Djordjevic← V. Vukojevic

83'

A. Cvetkovic

83'

M. Mijatovic← A. Cvetkovic

83'

M. Jovic← T. M. Sidibe

88'

P. Obasi

90+1'

V. Milosavljev

90+3'

M. Mijatovic

Stepojevac

Grafičar

1

Radanovic

5

Vukadinov

7

⚽

▼

13

15

18

19

20

▼

Djuric

27

Gudelj

60

▼

Jevremovi

78

▼

Tucker

12

Terzic

3

Konstanti

5

▼

Cvetkovic

8

▼

Pavlovic

22

Krstovic

27

▼

Bakic

29

Popovic

30

Tshibuabu

31

▼

Sidibe

34

▼

Martins

35

Bastaja

46'▲V. Milosavljev←▼I. Martins

69'▲Z. Arsic←▼L. Pavlovic

69'▲T. Todorovic←▼M. Bakic

83'▲M. Mijatovic←▼A. Cvetkovic

83'▲M. Jovic←▼T. M. Sidibe

Stepojevac Vaga substitutes

1Vukmirovic2Mladenovic6Vukasinovic9Mijatovic10Arsic11Todorovic14Maksimovic15Vucicevic16Wypart20Milosavljev23Jovic

Manager: M. Neđić

65'▲P. Obasi←▼J. Tucker

77'▲I. A. Adeleke←▼J. Jevremovic

77'▲I. Lakicevic←▼D. Djuric

81'▲V. Djordjevic←▼V. Vukojevic

Grafičar substitutes

92Vojvodic4Adeleke8Nikolic12Milutinovic14Obasi33Lakicevic44Vidic45Scarpino77Drincic99Djordjevic

Match Recap: Stepojevac Vaga vs Grafičar

Grafičar beat Stepojevac Vaga 1-0 in Prva Liga on October 10, 2025.

Goals: V. Vukojevic (68').

The match was played at Stadion Bezanija in Belgrade.

Stepojevac Vaga vs Grafičar — Prva Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Stepojevac Vaga vs Grafičar