Grafičar vs Stepojevac Vaga — Prva Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Grafičar62%
Stepojevac Vaga16%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Grafičar creates 128% more chances
Season form · 126 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Grafičar ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches
Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Grafičar attack 1.75 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.85
Stepojevac Vaga attack 0.65 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 62%?"
Grafičar at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 62% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Grafičar substitutes
Head to Head
TSC Backa Topola
Javor
Indjija
FK Zlatibor
Radnicki 1923
Metalac GM
Bezanija
Sindjelic Beograd
FK Trayal
Zarkovo
FK Becej
Buducnost Dobanovci
Teleoptik
Borac Cacak
Sloboda Uzice
Novi PazarIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Grafičar host Stepojevac Vaga on Friday, 17 April 2026 at 14:00. The match is part of the Prva Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Grafičar vs Stepojevac Vaga
Grafičar beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-0 in Prva Liga on April 17, 2026.
Goals: N. Stojiljkovic (45'), M. Vukadinovic (51').
The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mit in Belgrade.