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Stepojevac Vaga vs Buducnost Dobanovci — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Buducnost Dobanovci
Buducnost Dobanovci
11/10/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion FK IMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga45%
×Draw27%
Buducnost Dobanovci28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stepojevac Vaga
1.42
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.06

Stepojevac Vaga creates 34% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 43 away

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.47
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.09

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga
1.03
Buducnost Dobanovci
1.37

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par
Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

Buducnost Dobanovci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw
72%
Stepojevac Vaga or Buducnost Dobanovci
73%
Draw or Buducnost Dobanovci
55%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
22%
Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
76%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
41%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
17%
Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals
65%
Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals
29%
Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
62%
Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

Buducnost Dobanovci away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.37 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.09 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more
45%
level
27%
Buducnost Dobanovci scores more
28%

Stepojevac Vaga at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Stepojevac Vaga 0–2 Buducnost Dobanovci

Buducnost Dobanovci beat Stepojevac Vaga 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK IMT in Novi Beograd.