Buducnost Dobanovci 1–2 Stepojevac Vaga

Buducnost Dobanovci

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stepojevac Vaga

5/20/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 28Stadion FK Budućnost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Buducnost Dobanovci43%

×Draw27%

Stepojevac Vaga30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost DobanovciExpected goals in this matchStepojevac Vaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.12

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.40

Stepojevac Vaga

1.12

Buducnost Dobanovci creates 25% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 85 away

1.47

creates per match

1.11

1.12

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.47

Stepojevac Vaga

1.11

allows per match

Buducnost Dobanovci

1.12

Stepojevac Vaga

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Dobanovci+0.00on par

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Dobanovci ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Buducnost Dobanovci or draw

70%

Buducnost Dobanovci or Stepojevac Vaga

73%

Draw or Stepojevac Vaga

57%

Winning margin

Buducnost Dobanovci wins by 2+

21%

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Buducnost Dobanovci 1+ goals

75%

Buducnost Dobanovci 2+ goals

41%

Buducnost Dobanovci 3+ goals

17%

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

67%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

31%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Dobanovci (draw refunded)

59%

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Dobanovci at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.12 · 43 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Dobanovci attack 1.47 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.40

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + Buducnost Dobanovci defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Buducnost Dobanovci scores more

43%

level

27%

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

30%

Buducnost Dobanovci at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Buducnost Dobanovci will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff