Stepojevac Vaga 5–0 BSK Batajnica: Result & Stats

Stepojevac Vaga

FT

5 – 0

BSK Batajnica

3/31/2021

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 25Sportski Centar Ada Ciganlija

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Stepojevac Vaga66%

×Draw20%

BSK Batajnica14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stepojevac VagaExpected goals in this matchBSK Batajnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.78

Stepojevac Vaga

2.02

BSK Batajnica

0.78

Stepojevac Vaga creates 159% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 19 away

1.47

creates per match

0.53

1.03

allows per match

2.58

creates per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.47

BSK Batajnica

0.53

allows per match

Stepojevac Vaga

1.03

BSK Batajnica

2.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stepojevac Vaga ↓

BSK Batajnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Stepojevac Vaga or draw

86%

Stepojevac Vaga or BSK Batajnica

80%

Draw or BSK Batajnica

34%

Winning margin

Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+

41%

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals

87%

Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals

60%

Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals

33%

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals

54%

BSK Batajnica 2+ goals

18%

BSK Batajnica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)

83%

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stepojevac Vaga at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.03 · 86 matches

BSK Batajnica away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.47 + BSK Batajnica defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.02

BSK Batajnica attack 0.53 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Stepojevac Vaga scores more

66%

level

20%

BSK Batajnica scores more

14%

Stepojevac Vaga at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff