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BSK Batajnica vs Stepojevac Vaga — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

BSK Batajnica
BSK Batajnica
FT
0 – 2
Stepojevac Vaga
Stepojevac Vaga
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 6Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

BSK Batajnica27%
×Draw29%
Stepojevac Vaga44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BSK Batajnica
0.90
Stepojevac Vaga
1.24

Stepojevac Vaga creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 85 away

creates per match

BSK Batajnica
0.47
Stepojevac Vaga
1.11

allows per match

BSK Batajnica
1.37
Stepojevac Vaga
1.32

finishing

BSK Batajnica+0.00on par
Stepojevac Vaga+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSK Batajnica ↓

Stepojevac Vaga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

BSK Batajnica or draw
56%
BSK Batajnica or Stepojevac Vaga
71%
Draw or Stepojevac Vaga
73%

Winning margin

BSK Batajnica wins by 2+
9%
Stepojevac Vaga wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

BSK Batajnica 1+ goals
59%
BSK Batajnica 2+ goals
23%
BSK Batajnica 3+ goals
6%
Stepojevac Vaga 1+ goals
71%
Stepojevac Vaga 2+ goals
35%
Stepojevac Vaga 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

BSK Batajnica (draw refunded)
38%
Stepojevac Vaga (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSK Batajnica at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Stepojevac Vaga away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSK Batajnica attack 0.47 + Stepojevac Vaga defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 0.90

Stepojevac Vaga attack 1.11 + BSK Batajnica defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

BSK Batajnica scores more
27%
level
29%
Stepojevac Vaga scores more
44%

Stepojevac Vaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Stepojevac Vaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: BSK Batajnica 0–2 Stepojevac Vaga

Stepojevac Vaga beat BSK Batajnica 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Sportski Centar BSK Batajnica in Batajnica.