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Stenhousemuir vs Dumbarton — League Two 2018

Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
2/3/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 23Ochilview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Stenhousemuir40%
×Draw25%
Dumbarton35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stenhousemuir
1.46
Dumbarton
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 55 away

creates per match

Stenhousemuir
1.31
Dumbarton
1.33

allows per match

Stenhousemuir
1.39
Dumbarton
1.60

finishing

Stenhousemuir+0.00on par
Dumbarton+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stenhousemuir ↓

Dumbarton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stenhousemuir or draw
65%
Stenhousemuir or Dumbarton
75%
Draw or Dumbarton
60%

Winning margin

Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
19%
Dumbarton wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
77%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
43%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
18%
Dumbarton 1+ goals
74%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
39%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
53%
Dumbarton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stenhousemuir at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.39 · 80 matches

Dumbarton away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stenhousemuir attack 1.31 + Dumbarton defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Dumbarton attack 1.33 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Stenhousemuir scores more
40%
level
25%
Dumbarton scores more
35%

Stenhousemuir at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stenhousemuir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Stenhousemuir 1–0 Dumbarton

Stenhousemuir beat Dumbarton 1-0 in League Two on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ochilview Park in Stenhousemuir.