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Dumbarton vs Stenhousemuir — League Two 2018

Dumbarton
Dumbarton
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir
12/9/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 15The moreroom.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Dumbarton42%
×Draw27%
Stenhousemuir31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dumbarton
1.39
Stenhousemuir
1.15

Dumbarton creates 21% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 78 away

creates per match

Dumbarton
1.45
Stenhousemuir
1.28

allows per match

Dumbarton
1.02
Stenhousemuir
1.33

finishing

Dumbarton+0.00on par
Stenhousemuir+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dumbarton ↓

Stenhousemuir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Dumbarton or draw
69%
Dumbarton or Stenhousemuir
73%
Draw or Stenhousemuir
58%

Winning margin

Dumbarton wins by 2+
20%
Stenhousemuir wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dumbarton 1+ goals
75%
Dumbarton 2+ goals
40%
Dumbarton 3+ goals
16%
Stenhousemuir 1+ goals
68%
Stenhousemuir 2+ goals
32%
Stenhousemuir 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dumbarton (draw refunded)
58%
Stenhousemuir (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dumbarton at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.02 · 55 matches

Stenhousemuir away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dumbarton attack 1.45 + Stenhousemuir defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Stenhousemuir attack 1.28 + Dumbarton defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Dumbarton scores more
42%
level
27%
Stenhousemuir scores more
31%

Dumbarton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dumbarton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Dumbarton 0–1 Stenhousemuir

Stenhousemuir beat Dumbarton 1-0 in League Two on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at The moreroom.com Stadium in Dumbarton.