Stellenbosch 1–0 Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Stellenbosch

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

A. Du Preez 27'

10/27/2021

Premier Soccer League · Round 6Danie Craven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Stellenbosch48%

×Draw29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StellenboschExpected goals in this matchTshakhuma Madzivhadila

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

Stellenbosch

1.29

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.82

Stellenbosch creates 57% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 76 away

1.13

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Stellenbosch

1.13

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

0.72

allows per match

Stellenbosch

0.93

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw

76%

Stellenbosch or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

71%

Draw or Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

52%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+

22%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals

72%

Stellenbosch 2+ goals

37%

Stellenbosch 3+ goals

14%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals

56%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals

20%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)

67%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.72 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stellenbosch scores more

48%

level

29%

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more

24%

Stellenbosch at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

A. Du Preez

30'

Ibraheem Jabaar

46'

M. Mphambaniso← T. Mnyamane

46'

L. Koapeng← M. Matlakala

57'

J. Adams← J. Moseamedi

61'

Zitha Kwinika

68'

S. Ntshangase← C. Ngema

72'

Matome Kgoetyane

74'

Ndabayithethwa Ndlondlo

75'

S. Khunyedi← S. Dimgba

79'

J. Malongoane← M. Kgoetyane

79'

S. Sibeko← K. Otladisa

83'

M. De Goede← J. Mendieta

88'

Sage Stephens

Possession

Shots

Statistics

StellenboschTshakhuma

Overview

56%Possession44%

8Total Shots7

2Corners3

19Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots7

3On Target4

5Off Target3

Passing

56%Possession44%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

19Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Stellenbosch vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila

Stellenbosch beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on October 27, 2021.

Goals: A. Du Preez (27').

Stellenbosch controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch.

Stellenbosch vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Stellenbosch vs Tshakhuma Madzivhadila