Marumo Gallants 0–1 Stellenbosch: Result & Stats

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stellenbosch

Devin Titus 53'

3/4/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 16Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants32%

×Draw31%

Stellenbosch36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchStellenbosch

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.01

Marumo Gallants

0.94

Stellenbosch

1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 104 away

0.86

creates per match

1.01

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Stellenbosch

1.01

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Stellenbosch

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Stellenbosch →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–114%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

64%

Marumo Gallants or Stellenbosch

69%

Draw or Stellenbosch

68%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

12%

Stellenbosch wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

61%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

24%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

7%

Stellenbosch 1+ goals

64%

Stellenbosch 2+ goals

27%

Stellenbosch 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

47%

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Stellenbosch away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Stellenbosch defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Stellenbosch attack 1.01 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

32%

level

31%

Stellenbosch scores more

36%

Stellenbosch at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Fawaaz Basadien

Stellenbosch · D

7.9

Match Events

45+2'

Sede Junior Dion

46'

Rewaldo Prins← Sede Junior Dion

53'

Devin Titus

63'

Mpambaniso Monde← Sekela Sithole

78'

Genino Palace← Thato Khiba

81'

Mlungisi Khumalo← Junior Zindoga

86'

Kyle Jurgens← Ibraheem Jabaar

86'

Khomotjo Lekoloane← Ashley Cupido

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoStellenbosch

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots14

1Corners6

21Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots14

2On Target4

5Off Target6

4Blocked4

2Inside Box12

9Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

364Total Passes379

251Accurate Passes270

69%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

21Fouls12

1Yellow Cards0

5Offsides1