Stellenbosch 1–1 Marumo Gallants: Result & Stats

Stellenbosch

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Marumo Gallants

J. Mendieta 50'

R. Chivaviro 89'

1/11/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 13Danie Craven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Stellenbosch48%

×Draw29%

Marumo Gallants24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

StellenboschExpected goals in this matchMarumo Gallants

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.82

Stellenbosch

1.29

Marumo Gallants

0.82

Stellenbosch creates 57% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 76 away

1.13

creates per match

0.72

0.93

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Stellenbosch

1.13

Marumo Gallants

0.72

allows per match

Stellenbosch

0.93

Marumo Gallants

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stellenbosch+0.00on par

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stellenbosch ↓

Marumo Gallants →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Stellenbosch or draw

76%

Stellenbosch or Marumo Gallants

71%

Draw or Marumo Gallants

52%

Winning margin

Stellenbosch wins by 2+

22%

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Stellenbosch 1+ goals

72%

Stellenbosch 2+ goals

37%

Stellenbosch 3+ goals

14%

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

56%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

20%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Stellenbosch (draw refunded)

67%

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stellenbosch at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.93 · 104 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stellenbosch attack 1.13 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Stellenbosch defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Stellenbosch scores more

48%

level

29%

Marumo Gallants scores more

24%

Stellenbosch at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Stellenbosch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

A. Mcaba← V. Sibiya

50'

J. Mendieta↳ D. Titus

51'

R. Chivaviro← M. Makudubela

55'

K. Letsoenyo← F. Basadien

56'

I. Jabaar← A. Van Wyk

67'

N. Mgaga← J. Mendieta

67'

Q. Sibande← M. Boji

73'

Katlego Otladisa

74'

B. Bobete← C. Ngema

89'

R. Chivaviro↳ K. Otladisa

Possession

Shots

Statistics

StellenboschMarumo

Overview

43%Possession57%

13Total Shots13

3Corners2

19Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots13

5On Target7

4Off Target6

Passing

43%Possession57%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5